The sad truth is that the first Budget under Andy Burnham, on 28 October 2026, was overall worse than those under Keir Starmer, not better.

Rachel Reeves did increase taxes, most on employers, by £40 billion in 2024, and raised the NHS Budget by £24 billion. Cuts continue in NHS Trusts, and the total NHS England waiting list is 7.4 million and rising, but visibly there are more outpatient sessions.

Reeves fouled up by cutting the Winter Fuel Allowance (to save very little money) and refusing to scrap the two-child benefit cap, but then was forced to u-turn on both.

This Budget has been called “welcome news” if only “baby steps” by Unite general secretary Sharon Graham, and other union leaders have commented warmly. But really the very “orthodox” Institute of Fiscal Studies was nearer the mark: “a raft of fiddly measures that will do very little that will move the dial on growth”. Or on anything else much.

Put it another way, when babies make their first steps, they are often not in the direction they need, and are quickly followed by falling over.

£100 off (the increase in) energy bills for some of us. Gas standing charges abolished. More rates relief for small businesses. All this covered by small tax increases on bank profits and on income from property and savings. The amounts are all rounding errors on the scale of total government operations.

It was indeed a “low-key Budget”, as promised.

But there are two stings in the tail.

First, world conditions are likely to get worse, not better, and maybe much worse.

Chancellor John Healey promised that in 2027 “we will bring down the welfare bill”. He added: “we will do it in a Labour way”. What does that mean? Like the 1974-9 Labour government in its later years?

Better early-years provision, more council housing, expanded public services offering good new jobs, would all cut welfare bills. But there are few signs of hope on those fronts. Every government department has been told to cut its capital investment by 2% to fund military spending rises.

Labour movement activists will continue to push for serious taxation of the rich – a “Zucman” wealth tax, capital gains tax equalised with income tax – and for public ownership and democratic control of high finance.