Dave Levy comments on the causes and likely impact of Labour losing the Runcorn by-election.

The election results on May 1st 2025 are disappointing for progressives in this country and dangerous. Reform won a by-election in one of labour’s safest seats, won one Mayoralty, and took control of six councils, one from Labour (Durham).

Labour’s response has been stupid, by suggesting we should have campaigned harder, or disgusting, as in we need to be harsher in “Stopping the Boats”. Copying Reform empowers them, Labour must stop it!

Furthermore, it is little noticed that in Lambeth, the Greens, in a council by-election, won a ward from Labour. This is proof at the polls that there is clearly a constituency to the left of the Labour Party as it stands today.

The “hero voter” strategy failed; few Tories came to Labour in 2024 with many voting either Reform or staying at home. In his article, How Labour could beat Reform, Phil Burton Cartledge quotes the study Getting to Know Reform Curious Labour voters which shows that Labour needs to ensure it does not lose its progressive base who seem more ready to vote for another party than Reform voters do to vote for Labour. As is the case for the Tories, the votes aren’t there to make the difference.

The reasons for dissatisfaction are clear, possibly best or at least succinctly summed up by John  McTernan on Twitter, and in this thread. Labour is no longer trusted with the welfare state or public services. It needs to re-establish that trust by keeping its implicit as well as explicit promises.

Cross-posted with thanks from davelevy.info